以数据作为根治无知的良方，以理性作为心灵平静的源泉。这个世界并没有你想的那么糟。

书中所提到的十三道题目：https://ks.wjx.top/jq/25128345.aspx

CHAPTER ONE: The Gap Instinct

To control the gap instinct, look for the majority.

  • Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at all.
  • Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
  • The view from up here. Remember, looking down from above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.

CHAPTER TWO: The Negativity Instinct

To control the negativity instinct, expect bad news.

  • Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g., better). Convince yourself that things can be both better and bad.
  • Good news is not news. Good news is almost never reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.
  • Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips than the overall improvement.
  • More news does not equal more suffering. More bad news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening world.
  • Beware of rosy pasts. People often glorify their early experiences, and nations often glorify their histories.

CHAPTER THREE: The Straight Line Instinct

To control the straight line instinct, remember that curves come in different shapes.

  • Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not follow straight lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and no parents would expect it to.

CHAPTER FOUR: The Fear Instinct

To control the fear instinct, calculate the risks.

  • The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected—by your own attention filter or by the media—precisely because it is scary.
  • Risk = danger × exposure. The risk something poses to you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed to it?
  • Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid, you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the panic has subsided.

CHAPTER FIVE: The Size Instinct

To control the size instinct, get things in proportion.

  • Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.
  • 80/20. Have you been given a long list? Look for the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely more important than all the others put together.
  • Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing between countries or regions.

CHAPTER SIX: The Generalization Instinct

To control the generalization instinct, question your categories.

  • Look for differences within groups. Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise categories. And …
  • Look for similarities across groups. If you find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your categories are relevant. But also …
  • Look for differences across groups. Do not assume that what applies for one group (e.g., you and other people living on Level 4 or unconscious soldiers) applies for another (e.g., people not living on Level 4 or sleeping babies).
  • Beware of “the majority.” The majority just means more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in between.
  • Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
  • Assume people are not idiots. When something looks strange, be curious and humble, and think, In what way is this a smart solution?

CHAPTER SEVEN: The Destiny Instinct

To control the destiny instinct, remember slow change is still change.

  • Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every year can translate to a huge change over decades.
  • Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are constantly changing.
  • Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how values have changed, think about your grandparents’ values and how they differ from yours.
  • Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be tomorrow’s.

CHAPTER EIGHT: The Single Perspective Instinct

To control the single perspective instinct, get a toolbox, not a hammer.

  • Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
  • Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field: be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the expertise of others.
  • Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in depth, you can end up exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution. Remember that no one tool is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas from other fields.
  • Numbers, but not only numbers. The world cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.
  • Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions. Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.

CHAPTER NINE: The Blame Instinct

To control the blame instinct, resist finding a scapegoat.

  • Look for causes, not villains. When something goes wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that created the situation.
  • Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway, even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.

CHAPTER TEN: The Urgency Instinct

To control the urgency instinct, take small steps.

  • Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
  • Insist on the data. If something is urgent and important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
  • Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that. Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
  • Be wary of drastic action. Ask what the side effects will be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step practical improvements, and evaluation of their impact, are less dramatic but usually more effective.

Factfulness_Hans_Rosling

Factfulness_Hans_Rosling